Predictions for 2007

Since I felt I ought to have a post on the first day of the year, and since I have not made any resolutions (I already lost 25 pounds during the second half of 2006), I thought perhaps I would take a few moments and make a few predictions on what might happen in 2007.

1. Iraq remains a nightmare. As the country continues to slip into greater sectarian violence, the plan to increase troop levels is adopted -- but the extra soliders are there primarily as cover to consolidate operations and pull out fully from the country. International efforts will be applied to find a solution to Irag's political turmoil, but to no avail. If by the end of the year the country is not on track to be partitioned into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish states in a loose federation, then I fear it will take several years of civil war before Iraq stabilizes to any significant degree.

2. Hillary Clinton and John McCain, once front-runners for 2008 presidential noms, slowly slip into the background as also-rans. McCain lasts longer than Hillary, as the Dems begin to realize she is too polarizing to be electable. But McCain's willingness to sell his soul for a voting bloc will prove his undoing, as voters realize that what they loved him for (his independence) was actually an illusion.

3. Barack Obama is too young to get the traction he needs for an '08 campaign and, after exploring a run, decides to pull out of the election. He may actually cite his youth in withdrawing, saying he wants to gain the further knowledge and insight it will take to lead the country.

4. Mitt Romney pushes his credentials with the ultra-conservative right and seems like he could win the Republican nomination, until the Republicans realize he can't win, and go all out to convince Giulliani to run hard. (The GOP doesn't like that he's divorced and lived with a gay couple for a few months, but they will overlook that to retain the White House, which Giuliani can deliver -- unless there are skeletons he doesn't want seen in the light of day.)

5. Bush finally sees how tarnished is his legacy and looks for something to be remembered by, other than the fiasco in Iraq. He settles on global warming. However, he's too tight with his oil buddies and -- like everything else about his presidency -- his attempts to do something about the environment ultimately become another toxic stain on his presidency.

6. The California Supreme Court rules that the state's constitution guarantees marriage equality for all citizens, and California becomes the second state to offer full marriage equality. The right makes an attempt to amend the California constitution, but the effort fizzles.

7. The housing market in the Bay Area rebounds faster than expected, as Silicon Valley's resurgence reinvigorates the local economy. Palm Springs sputters for another season because of overbuilding.

8. "Spring Awakening" is the surprise winner of the Tony for Best Musical.

9. Tiger Woods devotes himself almost entirely to winning all four majors. He takes the Masters, loses the US Open after a very tough Friday round from which even a Sunday 64 won't help him recover, but rebounds by winning the Open Championship and running away with the PGA by a record margin.

10. I shoot another 39 on the front nine of a golf course somewhere, but can't maintain the pace on the back side and end up with an 83, which is my low round of the year.